Global Commercial Projector Market Plunges: Can Chinese Brands Break Japan’s Long-Held Dominance?

In Q1 2025, the global projector market showed signs of stagnation, with commercial projectors hitting a three-year low. While Japanese brands like Epson continue to dominate, Chinese players may have found an opening in laser and smart projection technologies.

Commercial Projectors Decline Despite Overall Market Growth

According to data from RUNTO Technology, the global projector market recorded a modest year-on-year growth of 2.2%, reaching 4.606 million units in Q1 2025. However, the commercial projector segment sharply declined by 13.9%, shipping only 577,000 units—the lowest quarterly volume in three years.

This downturn reflects a broader transformation. The commercial projector sector is caught at a crossroads, pressured by economic headwinds, competitive alternative products, and stagnant innovation.

Behind the Decline: Shrinking Demand and Rising Substitutes

Several forces are squeezing the life out of the commercial projector category:

• Global economic uncertainty is constraining IT and procurement budgets across enterprises and governments.

• Emerging technologies such as interactive flat panels and conference TVs are increasingly replacing traditional projectors in meeting rooms.

• These substitutes offer advanced features like touch interaction, multi-screen collaboration, and simpler setup, aligning more closely with the modern digital workplace.

At the same time, traditional projectors—especially lamp-based models—are bulky, complex to install, and lag in intelligent features. While consumer-grade models have embraced AI capabilities like auto-focus and obstacle avoidance, many commercial models still offer only basic keystone correction. This image of being “clunky and inefficient” is tarnishing the commercial projector’s relevance in a fast-moving tech landscape.

Market Share Landscape: Japanese Brands Still Reign Supreme

Unlike the consumer projector market, where Chinese brands dominate, the commercial projector space remains a stronghold for Japanese companies.

In Q1 2025:

• Japanese brands, led by Epson, held a 58.8% share of the global commercial projector market.

• In contrast, mainland Chinese brands held only a 7.0% share, highlighting a major disparity in global presence.

Why Japanese Brands Still Lead

1. Brand trust and legacy: Despite weakening performance in China, Japanese brands still benefit from years of accumulated expertise in optical engines, color calibration, and high-reliability engineering.

2. Technical foundation: The advanced R&D background and professional positioning allow brands like Epson, NEC, and Panasonic to dominate the commercial sector, particularly in high-end applications.

The Chinese Opportunity: A Path Through Innovation

While the gap remains wide, Chinese projector makers are showing potential signs of late-mover advantage—especially in laser technology and smart interaction systems.

Companies such as:

• Toumei Technology

• XGIMI

…are adopting differentiated strategies, targeting high-end business scenarios through lighter, smarter, and more integrated projector solutions.

Laser Projection: The Strategic Breakthrough

Under pressure from EU mercury regulations, lamp-based projectors are losing ground. In contrast, laser light sources are gaining traction due to their environmental friendliness, durability, and lower maintenance costs.

According to RUNTO:

• Laser projectors accounted for 31.5% of the commercial segment in Q1 2025, a 2.2% year-on-year increase.

Advantages of Laser Projectors:

• Longer lifespan

• Higher brightness

• Energy efficiency

• No need to replace lamps—reducing total cost of ownership

These features make laser projectors ideal for boardrooms, education, exhibitions, and digital signage—all high-demand commercial use cases.

Future Outlook: Reinvention Is the Only Way Forward

Experts agree: the revitalization of the commercial projector market hinges on two battles:

1. Technological Upgrading
   Brands must accelerate the transition to laser and smart projection to break free from the outdated image of projectors as inefficient legacy tools.

2. Scenario Innovation
   Growth opportunities lie in niche and emerging verticals such as:

   • Immersive exhibitions

   • Cultural tourism displays

   • Commercial digital signage

For Japanese giants, resting on legacy advantages may lead to market erosion. Meanwhile, if Chinese companies can leverage their agility, cost-effective supply chains, and rapid R&D cycles, they could disrupt the status quo and reshape the global landscape.

FAQ: Commercial Projector Market Insights

What is driving the decline of commercial projector shipments?

The primary reasons include reduced IT budgets, growing popularity of alternatives like conference TVs, and lack of innovation in traditional projectors.

Why are laser projectors becoming more important?

Laser projectors offer longer lifespan, better brightness, and lower maintenance compared to lamp-based models. Their adoption is being accelerated by environmental regulations and evolving customer needs.

Which companies lead the commercial projector market?

Japanese brands—especially Epson—continue to dominate, holding over 58% of the global market share in Q1 2025.

Can Chinese brands compete globally in the commercial segment?

Yes. While still trailing in market share, Chinese companies are making inroads by focusing on laser light sources and smart features to challenge traditional leaders.

Conclusion:

The commercial projector market is entering a critical reshuffling phase. Success will not only rely on technological innovation but also on a deeper understanding of evolving business scenarios. For Chinese brands, now may be the time to strike—laser-focused and ready to rewrite the rules.